4.1 — Operational scenarios
Page /ebios/scenariosoperationnels — translates a strategic scenario (Workshop 3) into a technical attack chain: a sequence of elementary actions matching real attacker techniques (e.g. phishing, privilege escalation, exfiltration), then rates the likelihood of the scenario.
Mandatory link
An operational scenario must be linked to an existing strategic scenario (Workshop 3). Create your strategic scenarios first if you haven't already.
Toolbar
| Button / Control | Function |
|---|---|
| 👁 View / ✏ Edit | Toggle read / edit view |
| Library: MITRE / Simple | Choice of the default action library for new scenarios |
| ＋ New scenario | Opens the creation modal for an operational scenario |
| ✦ Generate a scenario (A4) | AI generation of a scenario from a selected strategic path (Workshop 3) |
Action libraries
- MITRE ATT&CK — detailed reference of real attack techniques, organised by tactic
- Simple — simplified library, for faster and less technical drafting
Page tabs (outside the scenario editor)
| Tab | Content |
|---|---|
| Scenarios | List of created operational scenarios |
| Guide | Built-in contextual help (definition, method, library) |
| Rating | Configuration of the likelihood rating method |
Rating methods (Rating tab)
| Method | Principle |
|---|---|
| ⚡ Express | Likelihood set directly on the scenario, without per-action detail |
| 📊 Standard | Success probability rated per action; overall likelihood is calculated automatically |
| 🔬 Advanced | Success probability and difficulty rated per action; overall likelihood is calculated via a configurable Probability × Difficulty matrix |
The probability and difficulty levels (labels and values) are editable in this tab, with the ＋ Add a level and ✕ (delete) buttons.
Choosing your rating method
Express is suited to a quick analysis or a narrow scope. Standard and Advanced are recommended as soon as you want to justify likelihood action by action — useful in a review committee or an audit.
Building a scenario
For each retained strategic scenario (Workshop 3):
- Select the targeted support asset (defined in Workshop 1)
- Describe the attacker's sequence of actions, drawing if needed from the chosen library (MITRE or Simple)
- Rate each action according to the chosen method (probability, difficulty)
- The scenario's overall likelihood is calculated automatically according to the method
AI generation
The ✦ Generate a scenario (A4) button lets you select an existing strategic path (Workshop 3) and then generate a scenario proposal: name, description, and sequence of actions with their phases. The proposed results must be validated before being brought in.
Next steps
The risk level of each scenario is calculated automatically (Severity of the associated feared event × Operational likelihood) and consolidated in Likelihood assessment (page 4.2), then in the risk summary of Workshop 5.
See also Workshop 4 — Overview.